New York-based Bernstein Research has cautioned that the Airbus A350 and the Boeing 787 face challenges and that doubts continue on delivery schedules and weight.
In a report, “Boeing, EADS: Weighing the positives and negatives for 2012,” Bernstein said the 787 production ramp-up continues to look difficult.
“We remain skeptical that Boeing will be able to reach its production target of 10 per month by the end of 2013,” Bernstein said in the report. “In terms of output, the line is just moving to a 2.5 per month rate this month (January). Only three airplanes were delivered in 2011.”
Bernstein warned in October that Boeing would not deliver its forecasted eight 787 deliveries for 2011, suggesting only six. It also warned the manufacturer would not reach its target production rate of 10 a month until 2015.
In response, Boeing said it was holding to its guidance of 10 a month by late 2013.
According to Bernstein, 787 production is scheduled to increase to 3.5 per month in the second quarter and to five per month by year end.
“At the same time as it raises [its] rate, Boeing must take substantial weight out of the aircraft and bring the 787-9 into production,” the report stated.
But Bernstein also painted a less than rosy outlook for the A350.
“This [A350] program will likely be a challenge for several years. Feedback we have received from customers is that the A350 is considerably overweight at this stage,” Bernstein said.
"The program has also become more complex with the need to develop a second engine core to provide sufficient thrust for the A350-1000," the report stated .
In November, Bernstein pushed back its A350-900 first delivery forecast by six months to mid-2015. Earlier that month, EADS announced a six-month delay in the A350-900 delivery to mid-2014—a year earlier than Bernstein’s new forecast .
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